Unfortunately, or fortunately as it may be, I was only able to watch the first 1/2 of the mkt. this morning, then I was on the road and test driving a new boat ( and yes it rode very nice). I tried to find a good entry before I left this morning for one of my trades, and nothing showed in time. I prefer trading the last part of the day anyway. Tomorrow will be a long one until the FOMC comes out around 2:15 mkt. time, so it could be a dreary day until then (hence the K-Fed reference) so buckle for the ride. Check out the econ. calendar for the week.
So what are they going to do, lower the rates? Nope, what is key is what they say and I predict no matter what they say, we have a spike the opposite way we are trading at the time. Watch for it.
The VIX looks almost exactly like it did on Monday, closing right on support. The big breakout has still not materialized, but I think it will.
The S&P still very indecisive, but the bottom channel line is still holding strong.
Now this I find intriguing, this is the DOW on my 195 min. chart, or two candles a day. You see the three red lines on the last group of candles? Well those are the second candles of the day of the last three days. All three have black bodies, the last two closing lower than the first candle. This tells me the big money is most likely starting to turn bearish, or at least there is some significant selling going on the latter part of the day. We need to be aware of this and watch for it to see if it continues.
The NAS is still the most indecisive of all the charts, but it is clearly in a down trend in the midst of a longer term up trend, sitting on support. I have talked in the past about wicks, and how I watch them. Well take a look at this.
Here is the last six days of the NAS up close and personal. I was looking at the chart and I saw that we have some formidable top wicks forming. So I looked closer and I saw that we had not had this many top wicks in a row or in group for a while. Further, when they occurred in an up trend, it usually signified a turn. Check out the chart for yourself and see if you see something different.
Leggo of my EGO. I know that is not how you spell Eggo, but I am tired and don’t want to think of another cutesy line. So this is a possible H&S forming, look for a drop to the 7.20 area , a bounce or stall out and further drop. You know the drill.
TMO, I have this one here because you can see it gapped down after e, rallied and then on the fourth day, today it formed a bullish engulfing candle, a bullish signal. I am looking for an up move from here with an easy stop near 32.10.
Let’s finish with a little R and R, or just R. Ryder Systems to be exact. I would’ve loved this to rally and fill the gap and then sell off, but when I looked in the past, I saw it filled a gap to the bottom of the window and sold off hard, so we shall see if history will repeat itself. My $$ says it will.
In closing: I expect a mildly boring mkt. until 2:15, then I expect a pop, and then if we hold true to form we will see the last 1/2 of the day be worse than the first 1/2. I will try again to enter on of this weeks plays tomorrow, but preferably tomorrow afternoon, if I am patient enough. Trade after 2 and prosper. AKOT
Criss Cross makes you wanna jump jump…
Tags: Charts, DOW, Market Analysis, Nasdaq, s&p, Stock Market Analysis & Commentary
I tweeted earlier that I was going to go against the trend and short this mkt. late in the day, and I did. But I played a stock AFL ahead of e, which is not usually a smart thing. But after reading up on insurance e coming out, I felt they would guide lower and they did. The bad news, the did quite a bit bte this Q, which will most likely put a hurting on me. I have no idea why we were up as strong as we were today, especially after the GDP news this morning. But that is usually a bullish sign when we rally off bad news.
The VIX is in a state of flux, check out this odd reverse wedge it is caught up in, or the criss cross. This is the 195 chart, so you can see a lot more indecision the second half of the day. It is in a little up trend, but in a big steep down trend too.
The SP is still in a clear up channel but it did hit resistance and pullback. It truly is stalling out a little near this up move, either gaining strength for a power move up, or losing strength.
The NAS is still very strong looking blowing through resistance and continuing higher, for no apparent reason. Not a lot of resistance nearby.
The ES is sitting on resistance that has now become support. We will see if it holds overnight.
In closing: I still cannot believe the strength of this mkt. and I don’t understand why we continue to move up. There is no reason for it other than a new prez rally and that has to be what it is. Do people not realize the other shoe still has to drop? I am anxious to see what this stress test does to the mkt. when it is released next week, that may be the down catalyst.