Nothing has changed, nothing has broken out of any of my ranges, everything is still in tact. Although I do see some tightening on the horizon which tends to make me wonder if we will reach the second week of June before we drop. Today, however was a great day to be on the sidelines, and I did not enter any new trades today. It is too hard for me to trade volatility like today intra – day because I unfortunately still work. On to the charts:
Still in the red zone, and in fact closed above the long term up trend. Still bullish, but most likely will be very volatile during this thin trading.
The DOW, still the same, still hanging in the trading range. Day to day it is hard to say what is going to happen, but for now it seems content to hang out. Low v = increase volatility.
The S&P is honoring the new down trend line, but closed above the old channel boundary. If this continues I will widen the channel, but right now sideways is the name of the game.
Now here is the QQQQ, or cubes. I play them quite a bit and have been burned for small losses the last couple times. You can see the low v and the range trading we are in. According to this chart, we should move down from here. Maybe pop up a little and then drop to the up trend line area. I think as long as we stay blue, we are going to have wacky trading days. A breakout to either side will tell us which way to play.
The SPY seems to be in a tight wedge with v actually increasing a little. It opened right on today’s support and managed to close a little higher. This is the chart that makes me think things are getting tighter and we may see a big pop/drop sometime next week. I will be watching this closely.
Let’s start with a simple up trade, YHOO. Simple, up above 200ma, up trend moving slowly up. If you play options, you probably should buy time and itm calls. I would have a stop at 14.50 tight, 13.50 with play room.
This was a former long trade of mine of this trend line and look what happened. Downgrades will kill ya sometimes. But now look at it, trying to rally with decreasing v. I like this as a risky, and I repeat risky put play with some pretty great rewards if it works. The trick is, I think you would have to get in this before it turns south to catch the profit.
From yesterday’s post, I think the put opportunity on this is even greater after the strong move up today. I like that the 200ma held and the down trend held and the wedge is still intact.
Finally, I am still short BZH, but frankly I am getting a little frustrated with it. I have been waiting for it to break down and it just keeps ranging. Housing data has not been good and this is a weak stock right now, I will give it a little more time only because 3f is late this month.
In closing: Things are status quo right now. Everything is still in its range that I was talking about this weekend, and until they break out, I think they will be very hard to trade. Trade well and prosper. I still twitter daily. AKOT
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