Archive for June, 2009

30
Jun
09

is this market head and shoulders above the rest?

Once again we have a strong up day, which I thought was a little odd until I looked closely at the indicies. If you remember, a while back I talked about a possible H&S formation coming to fruition, and when I looked at my charts tonight, I could see it playing out. So let’s jump right into it.

09-6-29vix

The VIX is just tanking like a rock. I keep thinking it should bounce and it just isn’t bouncing. Looking at this chart I would say this mkt. should keep rising, but this isn’t the only chart that we will look at now is it?

09-6-29dow

Here is one of the possible H&S formations. You can see that a move up to the 8600, but not above, would confirm the formation. Actually, a reversal anywhere in this area would confirm the possibility. I thought that the 200 ma would offer more resistance that it did today, but it gave way and did not put a fight at all.

09-6-29sp

You can see the same formation possibly in play here on the S&P. The key will be the 930.75 line, if we move up above it and above the previous strong support then that is out the window.

09-6-29nas

Here is the NAS, still jumping up the up trend. I still stand by the theory that the NAS will lead this mkt. down. When the NAS turns down, which it felt quite bearish today, it will lead the mkt. down. Today we had a doji near the end of an up move, often a reversal or change signal. Now onto some other charts.

09-6-29tasr

TASR is in a nice wedge obviously on the top of the wedge with nice reversal signals. This should breakout soon, but I see it moving down a little from here.

09-6-29r

Another nice pennant that we have been watching for a while. It is actually a double pennant in which the up trend looks strongest to me, especially since there are two lines of support. I would look for this to pop to the upside eventually.

09-6-29phm

PHM is also in a loose wedge, but hanging near the bottom. If it moves up from here past $9.15, then I think it will continue up. But, it could easily break through seeing how long it has been hanging around the bottom of this wedge.

09-6-29nue

NUE broke out a while back and is now in a bit of an up trend. I put it on here because of this nice bearish pennant. I could see it popping down from here very very soon.

09-6-29cof

COF, another bearish flag. I really like this one because it move up and into the down trend line too. Pretty strong reversal possible here.

09-6-29bdk

One more flag. This one is real puhrty, coming in the down leg of a H&S. I think this continues down soon from here.

In Closing: I see H&S formations all over the place, and will watch closely to see if they play out or not. The VIX is very very weak, which shows me that the mkt. could have people stepping in to buy, pushing this thing higher. If it breaks above the key levels I mentioned, then we could be in for some more up move, but I really don’t think that scenario will play out, it could, but I just don’t think so. Looking through my charts tonight, I looked back at a lot of my old breakouts, and I noticed that they broke out, but not strong, they actually broke out then down. To me this is a sign of weakness. So there you have it, I am still a bit bearish, surprise surprise.

29
Jun
09

Weekly Video 09-6-28

Hey, I have been gone most of the week and I apologize for the late video. I still think more down is coming, but we have to wait for the confirmation of the ladder or stairs as I like to call em. Too tired to write any more tonight, so here is the calendar and the video for you to enjoy. AKOT

09-6-28econ

Brought to you via Briefing.com

26
Jun
09

Quick Update from far North

So we had a little move up, just like I thought. If you call little 175 points. That was quite a bit stronger than I anticipated, and I was on the road all day so  I couldn’t watch what was going on. I definitely was shocked by today’s strength. I thought we may end the day up 50 on the dow or so. So now what? Well I don’t have a lot of time tonight, so just a couple of quick charts.

ScreenShot

The SPY blew the top off my down channel on slightly higher v than lately. Again, I expected a move up, thinking the top of this channel would dare to offer resistance, it did not. It did, however fill the gap in one day, which could definitely be a reversal area.

09-6-25dow

I found this very interesting, the DOW rallied right up to the 200 ma before stalling out. If you have followed this blog at all, you know how I feel about the 200 ma retest, it is usually a strong reversal signal. I will be curious to see if it plays out.

In closing: Although I was surprised by the strength of today’s move, yesterday I posted that we could have an up day today. I thought that if we did, we would have a strong sell off on Friday. I still think that is possible. If we bust through the 200 ma, then that will change things, but if it holds, we will see a big sell off soon. AKOT

25
Jun
09

Stepping down

A very frustrating day to say the least. Not because of the mkt., although that wasn’t much fun either, but because my modem crashed and burned and then my wireless card was acting up too. I had to do almost everything off my iphone, and that was not a pleasant experience. It is a great supplement, but not the mainstay in a trader’s arsenal. Now I have a brand new DSL modem that seems to be operating and a brand new air card that I have yet to test. But you don’t care about that. Further, I have to pack tonight as I will be out of town for the next 4 days and probably off the grid for most of the time, and no I am not going to hike the Appalachian or going to Argentina, just Fairbanks. So likely, this will be my last post of the week, and a short one at that.

09-6-24VIX

If I can say one good thing about this VIX chart it is that it pretty much filled the gaps. It is paying no respect what-so-ever to any of my trend lines, jerk! I still don’t have a good read on this thing, but it feels like it might go down a little more from here before rebounding.

09-6-24dow

The DOW did what I talked about yesterday, just hanging out at this support line looking like it wants to pop from here. I could see it staying in this are for a few more days, but man it sold off hard today and that is usually bearish. I still see the H&S in play unless this thing really starts selling off from this support.

09-6-24nasdaq

I really thought this had the most room to drop and would lead the down turn. Well it showed me! ORCL stuck it to me today, and AAPL and RIMM didn’t help. All of them were strong today after ORCL bte earnings. That weak up trend held, telling me there are still buyers in the NASDAQ. We must respect the trend line until it is broke. It looks like it might want to drop a little from here off the gap up.

09-6-24sp

The S&P popped right back above the 200 ma, but is still respecting the 50 ma as resistance. I could see another day up from here and then a pretty big sell off Friday. That would fall in line with the ladders I have been seeing. In fact that NAS is setting up much the same way.

09-6-24spy

The SPY is still in the down channel, and it too could do the three days slightly up and then drop. I think if we close up a little from here tomorrow, I will be watching for a strong sell off on Friday.

In Closing: I know this is short but I have to pack and do some work around the house tonight. The strength of the NAS kept this mkt. from tanking hard today, without out we could have seen another huge down day. I think we could see a small up day tomorrow, and if we do, I think Friday will be a big sell off. I won’t be on- line much, twittering or anything, but please trade well. AKOT

24
Jun
09

The FOMC, Fake Out Most Chumps ( but not us)

Well support acted like support today, and it supported and caused a bounce. The housing news came out a little wte, but the mkt. did not drop like a rock, like I thought it might after the news came out. Instead, the dollar dropped like a rock keeping the mkt. afloat, further the support we talked about earlier this week has come into play and we are in bounce city. I actually think this is probably going to be a good short area coming up the next couple days. Tomorrow we have news galore, durable orders, new home sales (see yesterday’s post) , crude inventories and FOMC. Yes the FOMC rate decision, uhhhh this is a non-decision. The only thing they could do would be raise the rates, and that ain’t gonna happen. If they did, we would see a -300+ day tomorrow, IMHO, and I would be happy. The key will be their wording, which I bet will sound almost exactly like last time. Barring any surprises, I think we could probably bounce up a little more, but if we open up or gap up for some strange reason, we will likely have a sell off later in the day. Chart time:
09-6-23VIX

First off all ignore that long red tail it’s a bad tick. The VIX was slightly negative today, but it did not fill the gap. It is kind of in a flux here, meeting a weak resistance line, but really just kind of out there. I could see it falling or dropping from here, neither would surprise me. A lot of help I was here eh?

09-6-23dow

Now the DOW, it bounced off some support off the previous resistance, and the BBB,  like we thought it might. I think it may goof around in this area for a couple days, and perhaps form a right shoulder. If it does, that would be very bearish for the mkt. In fact, I think it would actually be less bearish if it broke support and dropped from here. Don’t get me wrong, it would be bearish, but not as bearish.

09-6-23nas

So the NASDAQ has a similar type of formation, but with more room to drop. That is why I played puts on the Qs today. Oh btw, I don’t think I could’ve picked a worse entry point if I tried!! I set an auto order while I was on the road and boy did it get filled. Anyway, this bounced off of what I would call a very weak up trend line. It still has the 50 ma to break, but I see us retesting that 1675 area soon. I think this may be the leader down when it is time.

09-6-23rut

The RUT looks the most bearish of the indicies. It broke support ,it broke the 50 ma, and barely cleared the 200 ma. There is a secondary trend line around the 475 area, and it will likely retest the 200 ma, but it still looks bearish in the intermediate.

09-6-23spx

The S&P 500 has already retested the 200 ma. Usually it will drop a few more days than this and retest it again. That is what I think is likely. I could see us hitting the 875 area, retesting the 200 ma, perhaps forming a right shoulder, and then dropping hard.

09-6-23spy

The SPY, however, landed on the 200 ma, bounced and is now trapped between previous support, a fib line, the BBB, and in a mini-down channel. This poor thing doesn’t know if it is coming or going. I say going, down more soon. I see it hitting the $87 along with the SPX like it is supposed to.

09-6-23q60min

The QQQQ on 60 min. chart. See my intra-day support and how great it held. Well I put my buy order in about 3-4 cents beneath that, instead of 5 cents like normal, and I tapped it right near the bottom. Oh yeh, that was on PUTS! So I am down a few cents but still holding on. I will sell if we hit $35.35. But it looks to me like we are forming what I call “ladders” a series of bear flags. I be watching closely tomorrow for sure.

09-6-23qld

Note how the 50 ma plays a key role in the QLD. Well it did it again today. It usually takes about 3 attempts to break through, and with this weak v I would expect at least that for a solid break of the 50 ma. If we get a v bump, it could be much quicker.

09-6-23qid

The QID has the same issue with the 50 ma. But we have not yet hit it. This one could touch it and drop quickly, or goof around on the line for a few days. Again without some serious v I don’t see it plowing right through.

In Closing: Long term I am still very bearish. Things are worse than the country wants to believe, and the news will say, and I bet the FOMC puts a positive spin on things tomorrow. But even the president is now admitting his attempt to end the recession did not work, and he needs to try again. Don’t be fooled. We are in the process of turning a corner and it will be painful to many, but not us. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

23
Jun
09

I don’t know why she swallowed a spider, I guess she’ll die.

Hey all, another good day following a great sell off sooner than I expected. I actually tried to buy some Q puts 15 minutes prior to the close, but my computer whacked out on me and I was left looking at what would’ve been some sweet quick profits. I will trade another day. Well I am finally starting to see a whimper of bad news rearing its ugly head, and the more bad news, the more bearish people will get, the higher the VIX will go and panic will ensue. Tomorrow existing home sales comes out, then the next day more housing news. I am at the point where I don’t think any housing news can be good news, unless we sold a good percentage of the existing homes already on the mkt. How can new housing starts be good news? If there is a lot, then we have flooded a dead mkt., if there is not too much, then the economy is stalling. Depending on how we do tomorrow, Wed. could be a pretty gruesome day for the bulls. I have included a very short video of the spider sectors, just cuz there were too many charts to post. It is less than four minutes long, but it has some good quick charts.

09-6-22vix

The VIX rallied hard today, gapping up and up nearly 15% early on. You can see it blew out of our down channel, sold off a little but stayed very strong. If this is any indication of things to come, It will not take us long to get to the $40s again.

09-6-22dow

This did pretty much what I thought, maybe a day earlier than I thought. I felt today, with the lack of real “fresh” news would be a sideways type of day. But when the mkt. tanks like it did today on “nothing” that is bearish sentiment. And it is even more bearish when all the news programs try to explain why it tanked, and they all have different answers, or generic “people are worried about the economy” . Do not read this next sentence if you are waiting for a bull mkt. I still feel the worst is yet to come. I hate to be a downer, I am usually a very optimistic person, but I can see no good coming from where this country is headed financially right now. So we should all be poised to profit greatly from it, I am working to be in that position.

09-6-22sp

If you remember in yesterday’s video I said that we would break this little bear flag with a huge red candle, maybe not today but in the next couple days. Well once again I was wrong, it was today. Note that we took out the 200 ma and the 50 ma, and now we are on the bottom bb. We could easily see a little bounce from here, but don’t be fooled, this mkt. truly has the feeling to me that we are turning a nasty corner.

09-6-22nas

The NASDAQ filled the gap, and barely broke support. There is a minor up trend nearby that could offer support, and the 50 ma is also lurking. It is not uncommon to bounce off a gap bottom. In fact in all three charts, the most bearish thing to me would be for us to bounce from the 1675 area, on this chart, and rally to the 1770 and the sell of from there forming a beauty of a h&S pattern. If so, that could be the catalyst to send us to the depths of retesting our lows.

I have included a video on the spiders sectors because there were too many charts for me to post. Needless to say, they are bearish, as I think this mkt. is turning. I looked through my QQQQ top ten and they all looked bearish, but this one stuck out a little more to me.

09-6-22gild

I  really like this evening star formation. This is one of the most consistent reversal signals, and I will often play them without confirmation. The 200 ma & 50 ma stacked on top of each other served as pretty strong support. There is also a down trend line in play but with this signal, I don’t think they will be as strong. It could’ve been a little stronger if the doji leg was up above the tops of the other two candles, but it is still a good signal. Now onto the video.

22
Jun
09

Weekly Video 6-21-09

We had a pretty good week last week. A little choppy the last couple days, but other than that it was very tradeable and profitable. I hope all of you did awesome. Now what does this week hold? Well we never know but we can see what it appears via some technical analysis. You can see below we have a ton of data coming out next week that is going to move this mkt. I think the housing news may be a little wte, all others possibly a little bte. I think by August most everything we be guided down, which going into then will make it bearish, but it also makes it easier to beat expectations. To me all the charts still look pretty bearish, and I will be poised to trade that way this week. BUT with key data M-Th, anything can happen. One of my old favorite trades was to trade the opposite of the news for the day. I would wait for the pop, and then quickly buy some puts on my favorite index. Or wait for the drop and buy some calls. It seemed to work much better with the pops than the drops, but it was effective either way. I have not done that trade lately because this mkt. has been acting a little spooky, but I may try it again this week. If I do I will twitter it so you can see if it worked or not. Well onto the video and economic data for the week.

09-6-21econ

Here is this weeks economic data, thanks to briefing.com. If you don’t subscribe you  should.

Now for this week’s video, please for you to enjoy:

19
Jun
09

Beazer is no Teaser.

Well I expected a pop today, but after yesterday I thought we may have already seen the “pop”, we had not. The initial claims and leading indicators both came out bte and gave this mkt. quite the pop. I watched the internals hard, and I saw them weakening and tweeted such, and the mkt. followed, but not near as far as I thought. I suspected we would end in the red today, and it looked like we tried to head that way, but some late buying came in and put a halt to it. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. We have no real data coming out, other than RIMM tonight came out slightly bte. But its comments were not all that convincing and it sold off a bit after the close. RIMM can be a NAS mover.

09-6-18vix60

This is the VIX on a 60 min. chart. I really thought we would see a little more support offered by the secondary trend line. But then again, the VIX often does its own thing and it did so today. You can see a stall out and slight move up the last few hours of the day, but nothing too impressive. It did close above 30, which may be the missing support line. Let’s watch to see if the 30 holds, if it does that will be bearish for the mkt.

09-6-18dow

The DOW moved up hard on the bte economic news on very light v. The doji from yesterday do give us a bounce after all. Note the the past support line, that line should be very very strong, and it did not give way today, nor do I imagine it will give way tomorrow. It is a pretty nice little 3 candle reversal we have formed, but not nearly as good as if it had come after a long move in one direction.

09-6-18spx

Very similar chart on the S&P 500. We did close above a secondary trend line and we did bounce off the 200 ma, which if you recall I was expecting. I think we will need some v to break through as I have been calling for. Tomorrow certainly could provide some extra v as the catalyst to confirm this down move. It is 4f and in an uncertain mkt. you have to wonder how many people are going to hold over the weekend? Also there will be some option selling going on as well.

09-6-18nasd

The possible H&S formation is still in tact. We bounced off the top of the gap, next support at the bottom of the gap. The up trend will now act as resistance, and we could certainly see a move down from here.

09-6-18q60

This a a 60 min. chart of the QQQQ. You can see my bear flag from yesterday, which didn’t act like a perfect bear flag, but hey it worked. Today we traded within the daily support/resistance zones. If you recall I said the 35.60 area was key and I was looking for a strong move beneath for some more shorting opportunities. Well I thought they were on deck, but they never fully developed. In fact, I didn’t draw it on there, but we have a real nice wedge forming from the last 10 candles. We are in breakout / breakdown zone. Look for another run at 35.60 with some V to confirm the down move.

09-6-18ung

I tweeted this one early today: 09-6-18ung tweet

when it looked like the above chart. Here is how it finished:

09-6-18ungd

Looke pretty bearish eh? I still think we test the top of that wedge, at least around the $14.50, probably lower. Still playable. From there, watch for another move up.

09-6-18dzz

This looks like a decent bull flag to me. Watch for confirmation before playing, but a pop to $22.50 wouldn’t be out of the question.

09-6-18hal

09-6-18hal tweet

another tweet, you can look how it finished the day and watch for the break of $21.50 . It actually formed a reversal candle today, so we have to see if it holds true.

09-6-18bzh

Finally I sold all my BZH today near the bottom. It just moved way too much not to lock in the profits, and I thought I may get another chance to play it down again at a better price. I saw it hitting that 50 ma and sold there. This my friends is the way to break support, nice v and strong move down. These breakout trades, when they move as expected, are some of the most profitable, but hardest to time. I was blessed with this trade.

In closing: I see more down side coming. The H&S theory is still in tact, and with 4f tomorrow, and no real catalysts, I can see some selling tomorrow. Or we could chop cabbage all day and end up with sauerkraut. I vote for the down move. AKOT

18
Jun
09

The indicators are indicating…….

Obviously we formed some serious dojis today. However, when dojis are taken out of context they don’t mean near as much. Therefore today I concentrated mostly on indicators. I use them every day but I don’t often post them in the blog. Most people prefer candles, and for the most part they provide the bulk of the information, INMHO. A couple things to note, I am short Qs right now and I took a straight right to the jaw, it wobbled me but I am still here. So I looked through the Q top ten, and other than the big ones, they actually looked kinda bullish. However, the indicators are telling a different story. Let’s look.

09-6-17vix

The VIX found some support on my minor up trend and on top of the strong down channel. It actually formed a bearish harami, but since there is no real direction, I don’t think it will be greatly effective for reversing from here . Instead I will be watching both of those support lines.

09-6-17dowindicators

I know, this is much different than my usual charts, but I watch indicators all the time. If you follow me on twitter you will see me mention them throughout the day. Now this is the DOW and note the circles. The MOSC has formed a divergence with a sell signal, the MACD is starting to turn and the SRSI has formed a strong sell signal. V has remained steady and if the AO crosses beneath its 0 line, we may be in for a stronger sell off than I originally anticipated.

09-6-17nasindicators

I Jinged this one so I can upload it to twitter, so the writing is on the wall ( get it?) Trend lines have been broken and should serve as resistance.

09-6-17sp

Ditto here on the S&P 500. You tell me what you think? One of the guys that taught me how to trade used to always say it is about the indicators, and man it is easy to forget that. If you don’t believe it, take some time with a  20 yr D chart, and scroll back watching a couple of your favorite indicators. Not just one, but two or three to confirm the move. If you were to trade on just those, I think you would find yourself doing very very well over the past 20 years.

09-6-17xlf

Pretty strong breakdown on the XLF as we were calling for. Note the strong v into the sell, and the bounce off the 50 ma. I expect that to be breached soon, with even a little more v.

09-6-17xlb

XLB too broke down. This is key because this contains keys to the housing mkt. If this breaks down, expect housing numbers to tank, and thus the mkt. will follow. Look at that v spike (hidden by my shameless logo) Note also it breached the 50 ma but retreated up from it. I see no problem getting to the 200 ma from here.

09-6-17bzh

Speaking of housing, my BZH July puts did pretty spectacular today, and I am still holding them. I did not expect us to gap through my support line, but my tgt. was the 1.25 area, and I am still looking for that. This was an awesome example of a wedge breakout. Took long enough!

09-6-17QQQQTDcharts

Finally the QQQQ. I show this in my TD charts. I leave these open on a short time frame for my intra day trades. You can see I use the MACD, ADX and SRSI as my indicators, along with Bollinger Bands and moving averages. It looks confusing, but it really is very simple, and I will eventually get this far in my Chart Style blog. Note the bullish harami we formed today. But also note all the indicators say we are going down. Like any candle, taken out of context it doesn’t mean nearly as much. I think that is the case here.

In closing: I expected a bounce on Thursday and I thought we were seeing it today early. Tech was strong all day, and for the most part was strong into the close. Often, after days like this, tech will lead the down turn as it was inflated against the mkt. It may take a few days, but I after today’s action the charts are a little confused. I think today may have been the rally attempt, and if that is true then we could see another big move down tomorrow.

17
Jun
09

Support is near, volume still low.

We definitely got some follow through today. As I expected the housing numbers came out bte, and the mkt. rallied. But it sold off convincingly, which is very bearish. We again tried to rally near the end of the day, but that too sold off hard. So in two days we dropped 300 points on the DOW, and I think there is a lot more to come. However, not without some upward movement, which will be good for those of us who like to play short / puts. FDX reports tomorrow, and often times it can move the mkt. as many consider it an economic indicator. Watch the futures and you will see if it is in play. Also, prior to the open we will have Core CPI and CPI, both of which I think may meet estimates, or even beat a little. If so we could set up for a similar day tomorrow, but support is nearby.

09-6-16vix

The VIX started the day down, and the internals looked decent early on, then things changed quickly. The VIX looks strong, giving nary a glance to the gap it has left behind. I know it will be filled, the key is when. In two days we have blown through three resistance lines, easily. There is a lot overhead still and the next resistance will be around $34.

09-6-16dow

The DOW has broke down pretty strong, v was a little higher than yesterday, but still nothing to shout about. You can see I have significant support at 8250 and would expect a stall / bounce in that area.

09-6-16spx

The S&P too has dropped strong. I actually see support above my 875 line, near the 884 area, which coincides with the 78 fib line (not shown, sorry but draw it yourself you lazy buggers! :-) as well. I will be expecting a stall out at the minimum in this area.

09-06-16nas

The NAS was trying to hold strong all day. In fact the cubes were in the green for much of the day, which was bad for my Q puts. But something key happened near the end of the day, the NAS finally broke through this strong up trend line. You can see 1771 looms as support.

09-6-16qqqq

You can see this H&S patterns on all the indicie charts, I just chose to show it on the Q since it is my favorite one to trade. We have yet to break this up trend line, which could stall us out a bit more, and after two heavy days of selling I would not be shocked to see a bounce. BUT, I am still waiting for a heavy v down day to get this drop started. We have not had that.

09-6-16rut

The Russell 2k had a great breakdown, but the 200 ma and old up trend line should serve as support.

09-6-16tza

I had someone on twitter ask me about this one. I was very intrigued by this chart. Does this explosion in v mean that people are getting increasingly bearish, and instead of buy puts or shorting stocks, they buy 3x short ETFs? I wonder if this will affect the VIX as well. Either way I see a strong ceiling nearby, but with this huge v we may blow right through it.

09-6-16qid

As I called for last week, the QID bounced off that support, now we are near the top of the window. I see it hitting resistance and stalling there.

09-6-16onxx

I really really like this chart for a great put play. This is ONXX, and other than the 200 ma retrace, this is one of my favorite trades. A breakdown of support, a rally back up to support that is often followed by an even greater drop. This one is prime for picking, but beware pharma stocks can get good news anytime then kaablam, they take of like a rocket. Play with caution.

In closing: There are possible H&S set ups all over the charts, which all entail a bounce coming shortly.  I would not be surprised to see a bounce tomorrow, but I think it would fit better on Thursday or Friday. AKOT




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