Unfortunately, I was never by the office today, on the road all day. So I had to watch the mkt. through my iphone, and the charts on there are minimal. But it appears that I did not miss much eh? So let’s look at some charts and see what we can see:
The VIX wanted to sell off, but then she rallied right back up to the red zone, not in it but up to it. I didn’t draw it up but it is actually forming a diamond pattern. You can see resistance is near, but the VIX has been acting odd, making me think we are close to something.
The DOW acted pretty much like I thought may happen today, it moved up hit and went through the 200ma and then pulled back. I would not be surprised to see a gap down tomorrow and a strong move down tomorrow.
The S&P is in an up channel still. In fact it just recently moved back into the channel yesterday. Now that it has been pierced, I feel it won’t offer as much support. We closed with a spinning top on a support line. We can look for confirmation tomorrow, up move bullish down move very bearish.
As I was looking at the NAS something that has been staring me in the face occurred to me, Are we trying to fill the gap from October? That may be behind the strength of this move. But we may have exhausted our up move with an exhaustion gap yesterday, no conviction today, therefore looking for sell off tomorrow. If not, then I will play up cautiously.
I tweeted this earlier, the QQQQ is outside the tbb (top bollinger band) and the last two times this occurred…. well I circled em for you. Could be a serious topping wick that formed today as well. No conviction today is somewhat bearish.
I show this chart because I thought there was a problem, but I checked and this candle is correct. It closed right on support and it is above 200ma, so this actually looks bullish to me. But, it goes against the indicies, and I have to go with the indicies.
INTC has a gap and a bearish harami, easy to see a move to the 200ma from here.
Here is one we haven’t touched in a while, HPQ. I like the down trend, the 200ma the declining v, and pretty convincing top wick today. It is actually in a flag or wedge. We could easily see $34 here.
BKE has been trying to break above resistance without any luck. V has been decreasing, with the up move and it just looks to me like this move is petering out. I would look for it to move down to the up trend line.
You can see in the XLE we were in a range for quite a while, then dropped out of it and right back into it and now up to the other side. I like the gap up , bearish harami, and being outside the tbb. I would love it if it were at 57.50, filling a gap. Still, great short to the 200ma, and then perhaps long again, we’ll see.
Since we are looking to short energy I thought I would throw one in there for you to chew on, COP. Pretty similar to XLE, gap up, nice doji, outside tbb. If we see a significant down move tomorrow, that would be very bearish for COP.
In closing: Well I hate to sound like a broken record, and like one reader lamented me, I could go crazy sitting on the sidelines, and I just might. Except I am not on the sidelines, I am SHORT, and I am in the RED, but not for long. Tomorrow is confirmation day, watch for it.
