akoptiontrader

Well let’s make that 85% , 85% of the last 20 years July 1 has been an up day. I believe it is the most dependable of all the 1st day of the month plays, and I forgot about it until this morning when I glanced through my trusty almanac. I then tweeted it, so hopefully you got that. Next year I expect you all to scream it at me. That being said, this was NOT that bullish of day,and we have one day left this week. But AKOT the DOW was up 57 points today, what are you talking about. Well let’s look at some charts and I will show you.

If you follow me on twitter, you have seen me talk about the internals. Well these are my internals, tweaked a bit from the shadowtrader. In 2 sec. I can switch from Prophet charts to this and get a feel as to what is going on. Today this is what I saw. Now, you not having a clue what you are looking at here, what do you see? Each of these is in a 15 min. chart. 3/4 of my internals were clearly bearish from 10:30 on. The bottom right is the Q on 15 min. and you can see where it finished right at the bottom of the gap.

The VIX looks like it could be bottoming, but I have said that in the past. I have done a little reading on the VIX lately and am learning a little more, such as there is a seasonal low, right about now, that I was unaware of. That’s the best part of this occupation, there is always something to learn to make you better.

I increased the v a little on the DOW to make a point. If you look at the peaks in v the last couple weeks, they all correspond with down days in the mkt. That tells us that there are sellers ready and willing to step in to this mkt. Watch for em.

The S&P is still respecting that shoulder resistance. The only thing that makes me nervous is that I keep reading about the H&S pattern all over the place, and when everyone knows it they can mess it up trying to game it, like us. Nonetheless this still looks like it is trying to turn down.

The NAS also looks like it is topping and I expect it to hit that up trend line very soon and very fast kicked off with big black candle.

This is the S&P on a 5 min. chart. I show this to re-affirm why I don’t think today was as bullish as I keep hearing. It opened strong but could not hold on to a huge percentage of the gains, generally a down sign. Looking at this, and depending on jobs #, we could see a bounce here followed by a lot more selling.

No new trades, just a couple I have already gotten into. This is YHOO, which I shorted on Monday. Not dropping as fast as I thought, but I am still expecting more down to come. I think if you like it you could grab some puts or short this yourself.

This is one of the 3 bear flags I got into and it is the best so far. NUE broke out like I thought, now I will put a stop in at the close of yesterday and let it ride a little from here. The other two are COF and BDK , still in em still watching for more down.

In Closing:

Prior to the open, we should have a pretty good idea what is going to happen. If the jobs information comes out a little wte, I think we will see pretty big down day. If it comes out much bte, then I am not sure, but I imagine we would have a pretty good up day. You know I think we might be right on estimates or wte. Also, before a 3 day holiday, there is sometimes some selling to watch for.

Finally, have a great holiday weekend, spend a lot of time with your families, thank our military, and stay away from your computer for a couple days, but not too long cuz I will have a new video up by Sunday. Happy Independence Day everybody!