Well so much for that volatility eh? Not really, if you looked at the calendar on Sunday’s video, I expected most of the volatility to start tomorrow morning. We had no real news or big dog earnings come out until tonight, and that should kick off the movement I am anticipating.
Although the charts are still very toppy ( see yesterday’s post) INTC came out with earnings after hours and blew the lid off in every category and then guided higher. You can’t get much better than that. The interesting conundrum here is that tomorrow morning retail sales comes out, and if INTC is an indicator, and I don’t know if it is or not, then ex-auto retail sales should blow the doors of the expected -0.2% fall. IF it does, then I think we take out DOW 10,000 tomorrow. IF it does not, then I think it will give the impression to expect economic news the rest of the week, and lead to some selling. Then the rest of the week should move the same, earnings after hours, econ news in the morning, exp. on Friday, hence the volatility.
I tried to short the XLF today, and messed up my order. I meant to buy if we broke the morning lows, but I entered “above” on my conditional order and got filled right away. OOPs! So I held it and threw down a decent stop and got stopped out. Hate when that happens ( yes I have done that once before!) If I had entered my order properly, it would’ve never been filled, which is fine since I was traveling all day and could not look at a computer. Needless to say, tomorrow morning I will be waiting for direction. I am going to watch v with any strong move, and possibly try to play opposite moves up and or down for some quick intra-day trades. Let’s look at some charts, even though they really haven’t changed too much since last night.
The VIX looked like it really wanted to rally this morning. In fact, I tweeted how it was up in the midst of the morning rally, alas that did not last. I have already said that last time we spent 10 days in this area, so it may be a sludgy few days here, but as far as candlesticks go, this is a pretty strong reversal signal.
The DOW managed to hold above that 9850 area, barely, and formed a nice hanging man doji, just dangling and waiting to drop. So strictly on TA, this chart looks poised for a reversal, but with all the news and earnings coming out the next few days, I would very careful. As I said, I could see the bulls bum- rushing this thing above 10 k just cuz they want 10 k. At that point, I will be shorting something!
The SPX, same scenario as the DOW, but the up trend line served as support once again.
I really thought this was the chart most poised for a reversal the last couple days, and whadya know, it is the only one of the three that ended up in the green! What a call eh? None-the-less I would be hard pressed to call this an up day, more like unchanged and still technically stalled out and poised to head down. Now that INTC has come out and hit for the cycle, I imagine, depending on the morning news, that we will gap up big in the morning. Could be a good play against the grain on the QQQQ if that happens.
I am almost scared to say this, but it looks like the almighty dollar may be bottoming a little. It certainly rallied off of its lows today on okay v. I would not be surprised to see a move up here tomorrow, no matter what the econ news is.
ENER has earnings in few days, but it hit resistance in textbook form yesterday, and had a down inside day today. I will be looking for follow through to the down side, perhaps testing $10 again before earnings.
CAB, I have tweeted this one a few times recently and it has delivered. It has stalled out on the 20 ma here, but it looks like hanging fruit waiting to fall. I like it to test the $12.50 area again, but again earnings on 10/26.
Wrote myself a cute little note, since this is BKS and all about writing and books and coffee, and snacks and music and……. I like how the 200 ma has offered a lot of support, so I am watching for support again, but if it fails then short to the $17.50 area.
I thought BKE looked a little bearish here, similar to PLCE which I tweeted about yesterday and then finished up today. I don’t think move will last btw. I like the v on this chart into the strong selling. Perhaps we will see a small bounce before dropping some more.
This was a morning tweet, ARM and it looked to be forming a bear engulfing, but that did not last. Instead we have another spin top doji, which still signals indecision / reversal and since we are near the top range, I will be watching for a down move.
In closing: We are coming into the heart of the first part of earnings with some big names that WILL move the mkt. Some of my favorite trades are the over reaction to good / bad news plays. Big moves that happen in minutes. I try to play the opposite of those. I would not advise it for anyone else as they are very risky and very quick plays, but lots of fun if you get em right.
To me, most all the charts looked like they have topped, but the news can change that quickly, so listen carefully to what is going on. Trade cautiously and quickly and prosper. AKOT
Just got to watch this week’s vid. Good one.
Must have been the day for snafu-ing orders. I meant to place a limit buy on a third chunk (technical term) of TNA when the market began moving up in earnest and somehow entered a limit sell instead. Machine was so slow canceling the order that I missed a good portion of that phase’s run up. Rest of the day went a little better. Jumped into GS around 0900MST and rode it up a few bucks. Played FCX long. Out everything at the EOD.
I’ll have to Google the Oct. 19 market event. Thnx for the history lesson.