akoptiontrader

Believe it or not, on such a miserable single trading day, there were a couple things to note. For instance, the UUP was strong until Bernanke came out and said that rates would stay low. Also, the VIX and VIXN were both up today, we did not have a huge correction. The bad news, tomorrow has the potential of being the same type of trading day. There is no planned news coming out. Now, FDX did guide higher, and they are often thought of as a beacon for the economy and for the holidays. I imagine that will give us at least a pop in the morning, but I don’t know if it will hold. More bad news, the only thing worth noting on Wed. is crude, and lately that has been good for scalpers, but not traders. More bad news, my stinking EXC puts hammered me today, but it wouldn’t close above Friday’s high, so I didn’t sell yet. It was an inside day and a harami to boot, so I surely have the potential to get it all back tomorrow ( are you trading on hope AKOT? Better not be!!). Let’s look at some charts:

back on top of our old support line, which lately has not been offering any real support or resistance, except for today. Since we have no real direction, I don’t think candle signals mean much of anything right now. What I see is the near perfect double bottom we had from Thur / Fri and that we did not break to new highs today. I except that 22.77 will offer resistance if we move up from here.

I noticed that we have formed a nice wedge here, and if it had been trending more sideways, I would call it a bullish flag. We are having a very hard time breaking the 10360 level, and I think if it doesn’t happen soon, we will likely bounce up off this thing and make some more new highs (gasp!).

The SPX is in a short-term up trend inside the longer term up trend. We nailed that 50% fib last week and I would’ve thought that would be the catalyst to send us south, yet sideways we hold. This looks very similar to that muck we got stuck in June before we finally had a decent drop.

This chart screams topping to me, but alas sideways we move. Note the RSI trending down, the four reversal candles in a row, an open gap. On the converse, the b bands are compressing and the 20 ma is now trending back up, but I still just have this very toppy feeling.

The fact that the UUP rocketed up to over 22.49, at least for a while should’ve been bearish for this mkt. In fact, it really didn’t sell off much from Bernanke’s comment, considering how much it moved up even today. Now what I will be looking for is to see if the little selling we did have was the typical over reaction. If so, we will see more up move with v tomorrow, watch for it.

DKS is walking off that cliff, as I like to say. I like this baby to drop here, I would like it even more if it had made it up to that big gap! The RSI is oversold, but I am still thinking drop.

Pretty nice breakout from an inverse h&s here. I don’t know if I would be right now, maybe wait for a little pullback. It would perfect if it sat on that support line.

In closing: The charts really seem mixed to me, the NASDAQ the most bearish, the others in small up trends. The dollar is strong, treasuries are up, the VIX is up, v was okay today, yet sideways we move. My feeling is that when we move, and I am still leaning to the downside, it will be a pretty big move, like 150 + points big. It seems when we have pent-up energy like this, when it goes it goes hard and fast, just like in June. Trade well with your trigger finger ready and some dry powder and prosper!