akoptiontrader

Well so much for another blah day. We had a real move today, with okay v, but not enough to breakdown, not enough to take out support. We have crude & wholesale inventories tomorrow and that is it. So unless another politician wants to speak, healthcare gets passed, we send more troops to atwarastahn, Dubai strikes gold and oil on the same day, or some other news item pops up, I will be expecting a bounce in the morning. Simply a relief bounce due to the abundance of selling today. Now, I don’t know if we will finish up, as every time I looked at my 10 or 15 min. charts on the ES, all the big v moves were down moves. That tells me there are more sellers than buyers in these recent middle v days. We had another strong day for the UUP and VIX, and the EUR/ USD is currently sitting on very key support, IMHO.

The VIX just keeps jumping levels of past support. It did it again today, and note that it finished much closer to the high of the day than the low of the day. I think if we see a parabolic jump up, say like the $5 move in Nov., that will signal a short-term top. However, if we keep just making small jumps up, we could go on for a while.

The DOW hit a key support line in this short-term up trend. However, although this may stall us out or even cause a little bounce up, I think the red support is the eventual target.

The SPX has hit similar support, and pulled back from it. I think when we do take this support out, and I think we will, it will be with a big down move like I was talking about yesterday. Today was big, but not big enough to take this out. It may not happen tomorrow, but Thursday or Friday sure would make sense.

We are kind of just hanging out there on the NAS. I thought we make a move to fill the gap today, but we didn’t even get close. I still think that move is coming, but this mkt. has been extremely indecisive the last couple of days.

The UUP keeps going up and away. It hit head first into some resistance from previous support today. I don’t know if it has enough fuel to shoot this or not. I was just looking at the EUR/USD and it has rallied a bit to get above that level I talked about in the intro.

FCEL, moved back up into the 200 ma with a doji harami. Note however that it did take out the top of this long wedge and that it broke above this short-term down trend, so it is not optimal. But still, these re-tests are my favorite trades and I will be watching this one.

The XLB looks pretty bearish still. You can see it made several of this megaphone type patterns in the pat before breaking down, at least a little. This current move is much more pronounced and could lead to a bigger move. I will be watching closely this current test of support.

Finally a little CCJ. This one took out two support levels, the 20 ma and found some support on the 50 ma, all on good v. That 50 ma may stall this enough for us to get short, or it may just keep on dropping to the $27.50 area.

In closing: Most signs are still pointing to more selling to come. However, as always, unexpected and expected news can and will move this mkt. If I see a huge very fast move either direction off news, I usually watch a 5 min. chart, wait for a reversal candle, and play opposite that move for a quick trade. It works way more often than not, as long as you are willing to get out as soon as your reversal candle gets smoked. I will throw some more charts up on twitter and stocktwits. Trade well and prosper. AKOT