Well all, it tis the busy season, and I am not feeling well, so I will have a super quick post tonight. Remember I said low v will equal up move? Well today we had Thanksgiving type of v, and we had a pretty strong move up . Again, I think it is likely that we will have low v all week, with shortened trading week, Christmas and general exhaustion going into the new year. I also think this may cause some huge volatility swings, especially considering the economic news remaining this week. They may be some great over reaction trades to be made intra-day, for those of you nimble on your feet. The way I feel right now, I don’t know if I will be up in the morning to take advantage of them or not.
Note a couple things:
The VIX took out that minor up trend line, touched past support and moved back up a little. Frankly, to me, this thing is a mess right now, and it looks like it may re-test that late Nov low.
The UUP looks very strong. I expected it to move down a little before rallying again, but it continues to stay above that gap bottom, and looks like it may want to make a move to fill that gap. Although the v is low, note that it is the highest of the last three low days, that is a v up trend. If it moves around sideways here for a few days, we could have an island continuation formation.
Remember how I thought the NAS would lead us lower? Well the NAS is leading us higher. It has been the strongest lately, today thanks to financials. A very nice gap above the ascending wedge I pointed out yesterday, and we have an official breakout. Now we look for follow through.
In closing: I expect volatility the next three days and I expect we will be up, barring any unexpected news. I don’t expect to be up prior to 5 am if I feel the way I feel right now. Trade well and prosper. AKOT
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