That means this is getting old. Now I didn’t expect a huge move today, no news, low v, holiday shortened week yada yada yada. More of the same. It makes writing this blog difficult, I will not lie. I mean what do I tell you? The exact same stuff as before? There is one thing that has caught my ear. I have noticed a lot of stuff on the news regarding the retail sales improvement year to year of over 3%. I believe this was based on Mastercard’s advisor’s reports. So right now we have a potential buy the rumor sell the news type of set up. The problem with this is that we should have rallied a bit more today on the news. I realize v will be low all week, but I expect it to be a little better than last week. So tomorrow we have consumer confidence coming out and if it is in-line or wte, I think we see some selling. If it is bte, then we will probably be flat to up a little, unless it is knocked out of the park, which I wouldn’t expect. Now on to some charts:
The VIX looked like it was in rally mode early on, then pretty much sold off finishing with a shaved bottom candle. We almost had a full gap fill and could easily fill that gap tomorrow. I would not be to confident that the gap will offer too much support if it does drop.
Another breakout to another new high, but again on suspect v. It could move higher from here, but I don’t think we can call it a breakout until it is confirmed with v.
We have a pretty decent doji here, and if we gap down and close down that would be a pretty significant top, a near shooting star, a very strong reversal signal.
The NAS looks very similar to the SPX. Just looking at this chart you can see that similar candles were near intermittent tops, and lately have led to more sideways movement.
Now the RUT really looks like it may be topping, but remember we are moving into the strong tie of year for small caps, so I will be watching the RUT closely for the next few weeks. I could easily see a drop back down to that up trend line, but I imagine that 625 line will offer support.
Finally the UUP looks like it might be putting in a bit of a bull flag here. It is showing oversold and the v is waning, so I will be watching for a v spike with some buying to confirm strong move up.
In closing, we have econ news on deck and the first of it is tomorrow. I will post some individual stocks on twitter so be looking for those. Trade well and prosper. AKOT
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